POSSIBLE SCENARIOS...

•Competition could increase on certain routes so Ryanair may need to launch a marketing offensive. Eastern European routes might not become as popular as expected so extra advertising may be needed. Low price doesn’t mean low quality. This idea needs to be communicated.Increase of Unit Rates

•The E.U. could introduce a common tariff in 2006 that is higher than the previous average tariff
and it could increase every year by 2.5%

•Decrease of Weight Factor
No change could occur here

•Increase of Airport Charges
Airport charges could increase in many Government owned airports if there is an adverse E.U.ruling on the Charleroi case. A 100% increase in 2004 could ensue with an increase of 3% per year after that.

•Increase Handling Charges
Handling charges could increase by 10% in 2004 and 3% per year after that if there is an adverse
E.U. ruling on the Charleroi case.
Charges could also go up due to increase in passenger numbers.


•Average Flight Distance Increase
New destinations could cause an increase in Average Flight Distance of 10% for two years and 5% for three years and after that 0% per year.

•Fuel Prices
Fuel prices could go up by 1% per year. Also the possibility of another War in 2007 for example could lead to an increase of 10% in oil prices. Fuel prices could then drop in 2008 by 5% after the War. From 2008 on we could have a 1% increase due to EU regulations on pollution. On top of the already mentioned 1% per year increase this could lead to a 2% increase per year from 2008.

•Decrease of Other Costs per Passenger
The max fine over the Charleroi case could be €8.5 million. It will be included under this heading.


•Dollar Exchange Rate
The Euro could constantly gain strength on the Dollar but the Dollar could increase value during the War in 2007 and could again lose value until 2011. From then on there is parity with the Euro.